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What to Consider When Planning a Micro-retirement

Younger generations are challenging the idea of a traditional retirement. Instead of waiting until the end of their careers to take time off, many are choosing to take intentional breaks between jobs or projects. A micro-retirement gives you the chance to reset, recharge, and rediscover what matters most to you.

However, stepping away from work takes planning. It is important to have a solid financial plan to cover your expenses and protect what you’re working hard to build.

The “why” before “how”

Before planning for a micro-retirement, take a moment to get clear on why you want to take this break. Understanding your “why” will help you set realistic goals and plan for your return to work. Not only will this help you understand what a successful break looks like for you, but it will also guide important decisions like how long you will be away, how much money you will need, and what insurance or coverage is necessary.

Having a clear plan based on your goals will give you peace of mind throughout your micro-retirement. It will also help you navigate unexpected roadblocks and keep your finances in order.

Things to consider before your micro-retirement

Regardless of what you want to achieve during your micro-retirement, there are a few key considerations to keep in mind for a successful break:

1. Build a dedicated savings plan

Set aside enough savings to cover your living expenses throughout your micro-retirement. Keep in mind that you might spend more money than you think as you have more time on your hands. It may also be helpful to include a buffer for unexpected costs to avoid financial stress.

2. Review your insurance needs

Leaving your job may mean losing your employee benefits. Make sure to review your current coverage and arrange replacements for health, dental, life, and disability insurance if needed.

If you plan to travel during your micro-retirement, remember to get travel insurance before you depart on your trip. This will protect you from emergency medical costs and other unexpected events that can quickly add up.

3. Understand the tax impact

If you expect little to no income during your micro-retirement, you may have opportunities to reduce your overall taxes. Consider contributing to your RRSP during high-income years to take advantage of tax deductions and withdraw your funds during lower-income years, such as micro-retirement to pay less tax on the money you take out.

Additionally, if you continue to earn some income through part-time or freelance work, it is important to understand which business deductions can apply to you and how this will affect your taxes. Planning ahead with a tax professional can help you make informed decisions during tax season.

Key Takeaways

Micro-retirements are challenging the idea of a traditional retirement. These six-to-twelve-month breaks offer many people the chance to step back and recharge in the middle of their careers.

However, it is important to understand your “why” and create a financial plan before taking a break. This will help prepare financial and insurance needs to ensure you are protected during your micro-retirement.

If you are considering a micro-retirement, we encourage you to connect with a financial advisor to help you develop a plan based on your situation and goals.

Clients, Families, Financial Planning, Taxes

2025 Summer Financial Checklist

The sun is out, and for many, summer brings a shift in pace with some time to rest, reflect, and reprioritize. Whether you’re spending time with friends and family, traveling, or navigating the school break, we often forget to take time to review our financial plan.

Now is an ideal time to do a mid-year review of your finances and reassess your priorities. Intentional planning goes a long way in preparing for the unpredictable. We’ve updated our summer checklist to help you stay organized and keep your financial goals on track.

Investment Contributions

  • RESP – While there is no annual RESP contribution limit, we recommend that you contribute up to $2,500 per beneficiary per year to maximize the grant. Be mindful that the lifetime contribution limit per beneficiary is $50,000.
  • RDSP – You may be eligible for up to $3,500 in matching grants depending on your income and contributions.
  • TFSA – This year’s additional contribution room is $7,000. Remember to check for any unused contribution room from past years.
  • FHSA – The additional contribution room this year is $8,000. Remember that you will only start accumulating room in the year that you open the account. Unused contribution room can be carried forward, but the maximum carry forward amount is $8,000.

Cybersecurity Tip: Take a moment to review the passwords on your investment and insurance accounts. Many companies now use multi-factor authentication to add an extra layer of protection for your information.

Legal and Accounting

  • *Updated* Capital Gains Tax – On March 21, 2025, the Government of Canada cancelled the planned capital gains increase. Capital gains up to $250,000 will remain taxed at 50% for individuals.
  • Corporate Taxes – Many corporations have a fiscal year-end in the summer. Now is a good time to prepare your tax documents and get them ready for your accountant.
  • Wills – Make sure your will is up to date. If you do not have one yet, we recommend consulting a lawyer to create one. Alternatively, you can use online services like willful.co to set one up.
    Bookkeeping – Get your bookkeeping up to date now to avoid the rush later in the year.

Travel

  • Insurance – Remember to have travel insurance before your vacation to protect your family from unexpected and costly medical expenses. Be sure to review your coverage details before your trip so you are well prepared in case of an emergency.
  • Spending Plan – Create a spending plan ahead of time to avoid overspending while on vacation.
  • Foreign Fees – Consider using a credit card without foreign fee transactions to save up to 2.5% per transaction.

With your finances in order, you can enjoy summer with confidence. Remember, while we may not be able to predict what lies ahead this season and beyond, we can prepare for it.

If you have any questions or would like to review your financial plan, we encourage you to check in with your financial advisor.

Clients, Financial Planning

Tips to Achieve Your 2025 Financial New Year’s Resolution

What are your financial goals for 2025? Whether it is building your savings, reducing debt, or investing for the future, having a financial plan is crucial. With January almost coming to an end, now is the perfect time to take control of your finances and set yourself up for a successful year.

Here are some tips to help you reach your financial goals:

1. Set Clear, Measurable Goals

Effective goal setting is essential for financial success, Using the SMART framework—Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound—ensures your goals are actionable.

Instead of, “I want to save more,” set a SMART goal of, “I will save $15,000 in my Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) by December 2025.” This will give you a clear target and a timeline to work towards.

2. Build a Spending Plan

Start with “why” before “how” by identifying what matters most to you. From here, an integrated spending plan will help you prioritize these goals and keep you accountable by measuring financial progress.

3. Tackle High-Interest Debt

Focus on eliminating high-interest debt, such as credit card balances, by using methods like the debt avalanche to target debts with the highest interest rates first, or the debt snowball to target paying off smaller balances first to build momentum.

4. Automate Savings and Investments

Automating your savings and investments ensures consistency without requiring constant effort. Set up automatic transfers to key accounts, such as TFSA, Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP), First Home Savings Account (FHSA), and high-interest savings accounts. This habit will help you steadily build your wealth while minimizing impulse spending.

5. Monitor Progress and Stay Flexible

Schedule check-ins with yourself or a trusted professional to review your goals and progress, celebrate milestones, and make any necessary adjustments. Staying flexible allows you to adapt to changes in your financial situation and external market conditions.


Achieving financial success does not come overnight; it takes consistency and discipline. Remember, financial wellness is a journey, and every step forward counts.

For our valued clients, remember to schedule a check-in with your FLC Financial Advisor to discuss your goals in 2025 and as we enter RRSP and tax season.

Clients

2024 Q4 Market Update

Photo by Kharl Anthony Paica on Unsplash


As we enter the final quarter of 2024, global economic conditions continue to evolve, with central banks adjusting their policies to balance growth and inflation. This update examines recent developments in Canada and the United States, along with their potential impacts on various asset classes.

Macro Update

The Bank of Canada continued its easing cycle on October 23, 2024, reducing the policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%—its largest cut this year. Canada’s CPI has fallen to 1.6%, below the 2% target, with core inflation now under 2.5%. While growth remains modest and the labour market soft, excess supply and lower global oil prices are helping ease inflation, though shelter costs remain significant.¹

Looking forward, the Bank projects growth at 1.2% in 2024, increasing in 2025, with inflation expected to stay near 2%, keeping costs manageable for Canadians. The lower interest rate should gradually support growth in consumer spending, housing, and business investment.¹

Russell Investments notes that the U.S. economy is showing more signs of a potential soft landing as inflation has cooled significantly, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. While employment growth is slowing and unemployment has risen slightly, layoffs remain limited, suggesting the job market is adjusting without typical recessionary job losses. The Federal Reserve’s proactive rate cuts aim to maintain economic stability, though risks remain if consumer caution leads to reduced spending and increased layoffs.²

Asset Update

The S&P 500 delivered a 5.53% gain for the quarter, lifting its year-to-date (YTD) return to an impressive 20.81%³. Solid corporate fundamentals continue to support growth, with earnings expected to expand beyond just the largest companies.² Vanguard’s latest outlook reflects this with slightly adjusted long-term projections, lowering expectations for U.S. large-cap stocks while raising them for small-cap stocks over the next decade.⁴

Meanwhile, their 10-year fixed-income projections are offering returns similar to equities, but with less volatility, appealing to conservative investors.⁴ Still, Russell notes that recent drops in Treasury yields have brought them to fair value, prompting some portfolios to reduce their bond holdings.²

Since they believe equities are priced for a stable economic adjustment, the possibility of a tougher downturn adds some risk. They underscore the importance of maintaining diversified U.S. portfolios to manage potential market swings effectively.²

Hot Topic: Red or Blue

As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, investors can expect continued market volatility beyond typical business cycle uncertainties. Russell has highlighted that key economic risks to monitor include potential tariff increases, changes to corporate tax rates, and challenges to Federal Reserve independence. Despite these short-term concerns, they note that historical trends show that U.S. stocks have generally trended upward over the long term, regardless of which party controls the White House. Moreover, diversified portfolios have typically delivered positive returns in election years, a pattern expected to continue in 2024.² While political outcomes may create short-term market fluctuations, maintaining a well-balanced, diversified portfolio aligned with long-term financial goals remains a prudent strategy for navigating election-year uncertainties.

Summary

Photo by Luca Bravo on Unsplash

The Bank of Canada accelerated rate cuts last quarter, during increasing economic pressure for Canadians. In contrast, the U.S. has navigated its economic environment more effectively, offering greater stability and boosting confidence in U.S. assets, even amid higher valuations. As the U.S. election approaches, investors can expect continued market volatility. With this and the U.S. potentially positioned for a soft landing, diversification across asset classes and regions is essential to manage market volatility and shield against economic uncertainty.

We encourage you to connect with your financial advisor to ensure your portfolio aligns with your life stage and financial goals, enhancing resilience in an evolving market.


Sources:

[1] Bank of Canada Media Relations. (Oct. 23, 2024). Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¾%. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/10/fad-press-release-2024-10-23/ 

[2] Russell Investments. (Accessed on Oct 29. 2024). Q4 2024 Global Market Outlook: DEFINITELY MAYBE.  https://russellinvestments.com/ca/global-market-outlook

[3] S&P Dow Jones Indices. (Oct. 2, 2024). U.S. Equities Market Attributes September 2024https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/commentary/article/us-equities-market-attributes  

[4] Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, global economics and markets team. (Oct. 22, 2024). Market perspectives. https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives

[5] Fidelity Investments. (Accessed on Oct. 29, 2024). Quarterly Market Update: Fourth Quarter 2024. https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/956327.html

The comments contained herein are a general discussion of certain issues intended as general information only and should not be relied upon as tax or legal advice. Please obtain independent professional advice, in the context of your particular circumstances. This article was written, designed and produced by Financial Literacy Counsel, a registered trade name with Investia Financial Services Inc., and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Investia Financial Services Inc. The information contained in this article comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Mutual Funds and ETFs are offered through Investia Financial Services Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments.  Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

Clients

2024 Q3 Market Update

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Stay informed with our latest update on economic trends and investment strategies. Discover the impact of the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts, get the latest economic updates from Canada and the U.S., and review recent asset performance.

Macro Update

¹

This past quarter, the Bank of Canada implemented two rate cuts, bringing its policy rate down to 4.5%. With a June inflation rate of 2.7%, they maintain expectations that Canada’s core inflation will decline to about 2.5% by the end of the year and reach its 2% target in 2025. The Bank’s decision to reduce the policy interest rate is due to easing broad inflationary pressures and excess supply, while acknowledging that high price pressures in shelter and services are keeping inflation elevated. Future monetary policy will be guided by ongoing assessments of these opposing inflationary forces, with a commitment to achieving price stability².

Russell Investments reiterated that a contraction of over 3% in per-capita GDP over the past two years indicates weaker economic health than headline GDP figures suggest. Additionally, The unemployment rate has risen from 5.4% to 6.2% over the past year. This increase reflects difficulties in absorbing the current influx of immigrants into the labour market³.

In the U.S., Vanguard reports that economic growth indicators, such as productivity gains and retail sales, are showing signs of slowing, leading them to anticipate 2024 GDP growth of around 2.0%. Despite recent favorable inflation readings, which have spurred market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, Vanguard predicts that the Fed may only implement a modest rate cut in 2024 due to persistent high shelter inflation and a need to balance economic risks⁴.

¹

Asset Update

¹

Last quarter we saw the S&P 500 start off with a slight dip, but managed to rally and end June with year-to-date returns at 14.48%⁵. Fidelity’s analysis echos its first quarter findings, showing that “Magnificent Seven” accounted for a 17% return, while the remaining 493 stocks were flat¹.

Vanguard’s updated 10 year projections show U.S. large-cap equities ranging from 3.2-5.2%, while small-cap and value have higher projections from 4.4%-6.8%, but carry more risk⁴. Though valuations may be attractive, Russell adds extra caution as they still believe there is a 35% recession risk in the U.S., which would have a stronger negative impact on small-cap companies³.

Similarly, Russell warns that current valuations of Canadian shares are reasonable, but economic concerns warrant a cautious stance. Despite improved earnings-per-share (EPS) growth estimates, potential downturns could harm corporate profitability. They believe that given the economic uncertainty and continued potential BoC rate cuts, government bonds are expected to perform well. They are seen as a safe investment, especially if a recession occurs³.

Summary

Photo by Javier Allegue Barros on Unsplash

The past quarter has been marked by significant economic adjustments, notably the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts. On the asset front, despite positive performance in major indices like the S&P 500, analysts recommend cautious optimism given the potential for economic downturns. As we have seen each quarter, the market is full of surprises and timing is challenging to predict. In this context, diversification is key to managing risk and seizing opportunities, helping investors navigate market volatility and adapt to changing economic conditions.

If you have any questions about how your portfolio is positioned or if you have had any major life changes, we encourage you to contact your advisor!


Sources:

[1] Fidelity Investments. (Jul. 2024). Quarterly Market Update: Third Quarter 2024. https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/956327.html

[2] Bank of Canada Media Relations. (Jul. 24, 2024). Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4½%.  https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/07/fad-press-release-2024-07-24/

[3] Russell Investments. (Jul. 2024). Q3 2024 Global Market Outlook: THREE-SCENARIO PROBLEM. https://russellinvestments.com/-/media/files/ca/en/insights/global-market-outlook/2024-q3-gmo-full-report.pdf

[4] Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, global economics and markets team. (Jul. 24, 2024). Market perspectives. https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives#projected-returns

[5] S&P Dow Jones Indices. (Accessed on Jul. 26, 2024). S&P 500®https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/commentary/article/us-equities-market-attributes  

The comments contained herein are a general discussion of certain issues intended as general information only and should not be relied upon as tax or legal advice. Please obtain independent professional advice, in the context of your particular circumstances. This article was written, designed and produced by Financial Literacy Counsel, a registered trade name with Investia Financial Services Inc., and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Investia Financial Services Inc. The information contained in this article comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Mutual Funds and ETFs are offered through Investia Financial Services Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments.  Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

Clients, Families, Financial Planning, Taxes

2024 Summer Financial Checklist

Photo by Natalya Zaritskaya on Unsplash

With the school year wrapping up, many transitions are underway. Children are starting their summer break, and families are planning trips, from beach visits to longer holidays abroad. Recent medical school graduates are also stepping into their new roles as residents.

No matter your situation, our team at FLC has updated our summer checklist to help you manage your finances during these changes. As always, feel free to reach out to your advisor if you have any questions or want to discuss any of these items further.

Investment Top-Ups

  • RESP – You can contribute up to $2,500 per child this year to maximize the grant. If you have missed contributions in past years, you can contribute up to an additional $2,500 as a catch-up.
  • RDSP – Depending on your family’s income, you can contribute $1,000-$1,500 to maximize the grant. For more information, click here.
  • TFSA – This year’s additional contribution room is $7,000. Remember to check for any unused contribution room from past years too!
  • FHSA – This is a helpful way to save for your first home and reduce your taxes for the year. You have $8,000 of additional room this year. Remember that you will only start accumulating room in the year that you open the account.

Cybersecurity Tip: review your existing passwords for your investment and insurance accounts. Many companies are moving towards multi-factor authentication to help keep your information secure.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

Legal and Accounting

  • *New* Capital Gains Tax – On June 25th, this capital gains inclusion rate will increase to 66.7%. This will apply to amounts exceeding $250,000 for individuals and on the first dollar for corporations. Be sure to review your investments with your advisor to determine if any actions should be taken ahead of the change.
  • Corporate Taxes – Many corporations have a year-end during the summer. Start preparing your tax package to submit to your accountant and check this off your to-do list!
  • Wills – Ensure your will is up to date. If you do not have one, we recommend working with a lawyer to create one. At the very least, you can easily create one online at willful.co so that you have something in place. Talk to us to find out if you qualify for a discount.
  • Bookkeeping – get your bookkeeping back on track and avoid having to do it during the busier holiday season.

Photo by Khachik Simonian on Unsplash

Travel

  • Insurance – Remember to ensure you have travel insurance before leaving for your vacation to protect your family from unexpected and costly medical expenses.
  • Inspect what you Expect – Review your travel insurance coverage details before your trip so that you are better prepared in the event of an emergency. Knowing the number to call and the nearest approved hospital is especially helpful when time is of the essence.
  • Spending Plan – Consider using a credit card without foreign fee transactions to save up to 2.5% per transaction.

Photo by Andrew Ruiz on Unsplash

Last, but not least…

Remember to schedule a check-in with your financial advisor. Enjoy the summer and we will meet-up with you in the fall!


The comments contained herein are a general discussion of certain issues intended as general information only and should not be relied upon as tax or legal advice. Please obtain independent professional advice, in the context of your particular circumstances. This article was written, designed and produced by Financial Literacy Counsel, a registered trade name with Investia Financial Services Inc., and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Investia Financial Services Inc. The information contained in this article comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Mutual Funds are offered through Investia Financial Services Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments.  Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

Clients

2024 Q2 Market Update

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Get insights on economic trends and investment strategies with our latest update. Learn about the Bank of Canada’s inflation outlook, current market dynamics, and key highlights from the 2024 Federal Budget, including changes to the capital gains tax and the Home Buyers Plan.

Macro Update: Steady as she goes

¹

On April 10th, the Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its policy rate at 5%. They anticipate Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to hover around 3% in the first half of 2024 before moderating to below 2.5% in the latter half, ultimately reaching the 2% inflation target by 2025².

Russell Investments updated its Canadian recession estimation to occur within the next 12 to 18 months, pushing it into 2025. Immigration continues to bolster the overall economy, yet the current job creation rate doesn’t align with the influx of immigrants. Despite no official recession, GDP per capita has declined by 3.2% since the second quarter of 2022, which they suggest is a “standard-of-living recession”³. Higher debt levels and joblessness pose ongoing risks as indicators of soft demand persist in Canada, with slow sales growth particularly evident in sectors tied to discretionary consumption and residential real estate⁴.

In contrast, Vanguard’s view on the US economy appears more optimistic, with expected real economic growth of about 2.0% in 2024, surpassing their initial estimates of 0.5%. Shelter prices, a significant component of the core inflation, have increased by 5.7% year-over-year, contributing substantially to overall inflation⁵, similar to the current state in Canada.

Asset Update: Keeping the ship stocked

¹

The S&P 500 ended a strong first quarter above 10%, but has pulled back since then, with year-to-date returns at 6.33% as of April 24, 2024⁶. Fidelity’s analysis highlights a continued significant performance gap within the index: by the close of the quarter, the “Magnificent Seven” stocks appreciated by 17%, nearly doubling the broader S&P 500’s growth rate, which stood at 9%¹.

Shifting focus to portfolio strategies, Russell Investments has been prioritizing security selection and diversification to safeguard client outcomes amidst diverse scenarios anticipated in the coming year. While formerly favoring quality equities—companies with strong balance sheets and profitability—this preference was adjusted in February following a period of robust performance for these stocks³. Similarly, Vanguard suggests that though these equities are currently favorable, investors might contemplate maintaining some exposure to large-cap growth stocks. Many have thought these to be overbought, however, they may still have a runway for continued returns⁵. This underscores the value of a diversified portfolio for long-term growth.

Hot Topic: 2024 Federal Budget – is that an iceberg?

Photo by Tom Carnegie on Unsplash

Earlier this month, Canada’s Department of Finance presented the 2024 Federal Budget. By the next morning, many woke up to headlines surrounding the capital gains tax increase from 50% to 67%. The Department of Finance emphasized that this would primarily affect Canada’s highest income earners, as, for individuals, it only applies to amounts in excess of $250,000⁷. However, professionals who are incorporated or planning to incorporate will have to do a deeper dive into potential implications. There will also be greater considerations for estate planning and real estate investment properties.

Prior to the full budget release, the Finance Minister announced an update to the Home Buyers Plan. Canadians can now withdraw up to $60,000, a substantial increase from the previous limit of $35,000, from their tax-sheltered RRSP to facilitate first-time home purchases. This adjustment is expected to provide valuable assistance to those striving for homeownership. You can find additional details about this development on Investment Executive here⁸.

Summary

Photo by Javier Allegue Barros on Unsplash

As we navigate these economic shifts and policy changes together, it’s essential to conduct regular reviews of your financial plan. Remember to keep the principle of diversification top of mind in your investment strategy. Diversified portfolios not only help manage risks but also maximize growth opportunities over time, regardless of market fluctuations. If you’re uncertain about how the Federal Budget developments may affect your financial journey, we encourage you to reach out and connect with your advisor. Your financial well-being is our priority, and we’re here to provide personalized guidance and support tailored to your individual goals and concerns.


Sources:

[1] Fidelity Investments. (Apr. 2024). Quarterly Market Update: Second Quarter 2024. https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/white-paper/9883196/second-quarter-2024-quarterly-market-update.html

[2] Bank of Canada Media Relations. (Apr. 10, 2024). Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/fad-press-release-2024-04-10/

[3] Russell Investments. (Apr. 2024). Q2 2024 Global Market Outlook: PENT-UP EXUBERANCE. https://russellinvestments.com/-/media/files/ca/en/insights/global-market-outlook/2024-q2-gmo-full-report.pdf

[4] Bank of Canada. (Apr. 1, 2024). Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2024. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/business-outlook-survey-first-quarter-of-2024/

[5] Dziuba, R & Sheridan, M. (Mar. 22, 2024). Portfolio perspectives. https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives

[6] S&P Dow Jones Indices. (Accessed on Apr. 24, 2024). S&P 500®https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/commentary/article/us-equities-market-attributes  

[7] Government of Canada. (Accessed on Apr. 25, 2024). Budget 2024: Chapter 8: Tax Fairness for Every Generation. https://www.budget.canada.ca/2024/report-rapport/chap8-en.html

[8] Mezzeta, R. (Apr. 11, 2024). Feds boost home buyers plan withdrawal limit to $60,000. https://www.budget.canada.ca/2024/report-rapport/chap8-en.html

The comments contained herein are a general discussion of certain issues intended as general information only and should not be relied upon as tax or legal advice. Please obtain independent professional advice, in the context of your particular circumstances. This article was written, designed and produced by Financial Literacy Counsel, a registered trade name with Investia Financial Services Inc., and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Investia Financial Services Inc. The information contained in this article comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Mutual Funds and ETFs are offered through Investia Financial Services Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments.  Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

Clients

2024 Q1 Market Update

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Join us as we explore the economic forecast and investment landscape, similar to checking the weather before stepping out. This quarter we navigate through the economic trends on inflation and interest rates, insights shaping financial climates, and the continued case for diversification.

Macro Update: Checking the Weather App

Much like forecasting the weather, forecasting the economy is an imperfect art. If they are at least directionally correct, we can rely on them for guidance on how to plan for the future.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained a 5% policy rate on January 24, 2024, aligning with their previous announcements in the latter half of 2023. They highlighted that wage growth and shelter costs continue to contribute to elevated rates. As the economic climate aligns with projections, the expectation is that inflation will remain at approximately 3% for the coming months, gradually tapering to around 2.5% by the end of the year. Given these positive developments, the BoC has shifted its discussions from assessing whether the policy is “restrictive enough” to deliberating “how long it needs to stay”¹. This signal reinforces the consensus that interest rates have likely reached their peak, contingent on the economy’s anticipated path. It follows a similar U.S. signal sent at the end of 2023².

Russell Investments underscores a Bank of America survey revealing that 74% of fund managers do not foresee a U.S. recession in 2024, a statistic they approach with caution, deeming it overly optimistic³. Conversely, Canadians are more keenly feeling the impact of prevailing interest rate levels. Both Russell and Vanguard investments anticipate a mild recession still in the Canadian forecast this year, with predictions of a series of rate cuts by the end of 2024³,⁴. This projection is welcomed news, creating anticipation of warmer days after a prolonged winter, especially as consumer confidence continues to experience a chilling effect.

Asset Update: (Not so) Surprise Snow

Vancouver experienced one of its most pleasant Decembers in recent years, characterized by minimal rain and abundant sunshine that created a deceptively comfortable atmosphere. However, January brought a change with a light dusting of snow, catching many residents off guard during their commutes.

In the financial landscape, 2023 concluded positively for both stocks and fixed income, largely boosted by a robust performance in the final quarter². While the U.S. stock performance may tempt investors to concentrate on high-performing sectors such as growth and tech stocks, the team at Russell advises caution, highlighting that downside risk may outweigh the upside potential. Canadian equities boast a forward price-to-equity ratio of 12, appearing more attractive compared to the more expensive U.S. P/E of 18. This perceived value should also be shared with an acknowledgment that Canadian equities tend to be more cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns³.

Last quarter, we emphasized Vanguard’s perspective that projected fixed income returns fall within the band for U.S. equities, advocating for a diversified portfolio⁴. Given ongoing economic uncertainty and the understanding that fixed income prices typically ascend when interest rates decline, consider them to be your financial winter tires. In the event of an economic snowfall, they enhance your likelihood of reaching your financial destination unscathed.

Hot Topic: We can never be too careful…or can we?

“Rebalancing is a strategy of realigning your portfolio to your objectives and needs, which should be done at least once a year.”

– Bobby Ning, CFP and Co-Founder of FLC

In 2023, discomfort was prevalent, leading many investors to seek refuge in Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs) and High-Interest Savings Accounts (HISAs), offering a secure 5% return. While this approach proved effective for those with a shorter investment horizon, long-term investors may have foregone potential double-digit returns by avoiding a measured level of risk. As a gentle reminder, it’s prudent to schedule an annual review with your advisor. Rebalancing, the strategic realignment of your portfolio to align with your financial objectives, is a crucial exercise in restoring diversification. Additionally, your advisor may present alternative diversification opportunities for your excess cash that better align with your unique financial landscape, mirroring the adaptability required when navigating changing climates.
tions regarding your investments aligning with your long-term plan, it’s advisable to consult your financial advisor.
 

Summary

Photo by Ruben. on Unsplash

Much like checking a weather app, forecasting the economy offers imperfect yet directional insights. The Bank of Canada’s stable policy rate signals a projected economic trajectory, akin to anticipating shifting seasons. Contrasting sentiments between Canadian caution and U.S. optimism echo weather forecasts in different regions, emphasizing the need for diversified portfolios as protective measures. We strongly encourage you to reach out to your advisor if you have any questions about your current portfolio. Strategic realignments, like rebalancing portfolios, underscore the value of annual reviews, ensuring readiness for whatever financial weather lies ahead.


Sources:

[1]Macklem, Tiff. (Jan. 24, 2024). Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statementhttps://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/01/opening-statement-2024-01-24/

[2] Fidelity Investments. (Jan. 2024). Quarterly Market Update: First Quarter 2024https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=/956327.PDF

[3] Russell Investments. (Jan. 2024). 2024 Annual Global Market Outlook: THE TWILIGHT ZONE. https://russellinvestments.com/-/media/files/ca/en/insights/global-market-outlook/2024-q1-gmo-summary_ca.pdf

[4] Vanguard Investment Strategy Group. (Jan. 19, 2024). Monthly outlook: Our investment and economic outlook, January 2024https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/investment-economic-outlook-jan-2024.html

The comments contained herein are a general discussion of certain issues intended as general information only and should not be relied upon as tax or legal advice. Please obtain independent professional advice, in the context of your particular circumstances. This article was written, designed and produced by Financial Literacy Counsel, a registered trade name with Investia Financial Services Inc., and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Investia Financial Services Inc. The information contained in this article comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Mutual Funds and ETFs are offered through Investia Financial Services Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments.  Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

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